Nick’s Picks – Week 5

Lock Pick: Green Bay
NY Giants (+8) v Green Bay (-8) T 41

The Giants going to 4-1 just seems impossible. Daniel Jones is playing with one ankle. The only
threat to Green Bay is RB Saquon Barkley. The Packers front 7 is deep but still rank 24th in the
league in yards given up to RBs per rush (4.97). But you just don’t bet against Aaron Rodgers.
Rodgers has been slinging it to new, yet still relatively inexperienced WRs Allen Lazard, Romeo
Doubs and Christian Watson. I think this game is close because it’s in London, but I don’t
believe New York can possibly win this game.

Upset Pick: Houston Texans
Houston Texans (+270, +7) v Jacksonville Jaguars (-340, -7)

This could be an emotional, stretch pick, since Jacksonville is fully expected to win this one,
which makes it all the reason why they won’t. It’s a divisional game, Houston is still searching for
their first win, and I just don’t believe Jacksonville is actually a good team. They are very
vulnerable in this game. Houston nearly completed a miracle comeback against The Chargers
last week, lost by 3 to the Bears, 7 to Denver and tied Week 1 to Indy. I think Jacksonville is too
heavily favored in this one. I like Houston, and they even offer fair value at +270.

Value pick: Las Vegas Raiders (+260) MNF
Las Vegas Raiders (+260) v Kansas City Chiefs (-320)

Reminder that my value picks are not necessarily who I think will win, just those that offer good
value. A typical -7, +7 line is priced around (+245/250, -330/-335). Which means that you’re
getting more for your dollar on an averaged priced -7 line that pays out +250, (Las Vegas is
currently +260). What do the Raiders have to do to win? You’re not going to stop Mahomes, only
limit. Derek Carr is going to have to keep pace and force feed newly acquired WR Davante
Adams, something we finally saw a glimpse of last week against Denver since Week 1. The
Raiders always play Kansas City tough. I definitely think they cover 7, but the more important
question is can they win. Are the Raiders really going to fall to 1-4?!

47 thoughts on “Nick’s Picks – Week 5

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