Nick’s Sunday Picks – Week 5
*Spread is shown for each game. My “Winner” indicates who I think the winner will be on
on the moneyline, not with the spread
Detroit (+3) v New England (-3)
Winner: New England (-155)
Both teams sitting at 1-3, this is a relatively underrated matchup this week. The Detroit Lions are
one of the most puzzling franchises to figure out. They have scored, and given up the most points
in the league. Their 281 total PF and PA are the most ever in NFL history through four weeks.
The Lions remain banged up, but we saw last week the depth they have with players like TE T.J
Hockenson, RB Jamaal Williams, and even WR Josh Reynolds stepping up to the plate. QB
Bailey Zappe will most likely get the nod this Sunday and played relatively well against a Green
Bay team last week. I’m picking New England because I trust Bill Belichick, and former Lions
head coach Matt Patricia, to beat the most confusing team in the NFL, at home.
Pittsburgh (+14) v Buffalo (-14)
Winner: Buffalo Bills (-900)
This game gives me Jacksonville vibes from last year. I think it is ignorant to not believe that it is
possible that the Bills come out flat, especially in the early portion of the game. It’s also just as
likely that they go up 21-0 after the 1st quarter. Simply, this is just not a game the Bills should
lose. They should harass rookie QB Kenny Pickett and make his life a living hell. I am picking
the Bills to win obviously and the Bills -14.
Miami (-3.5) v NY Jets (+3.5)
Winner: NY Jets (+150)
QB Teddy Bridgewater will make his first official start of the year for Miami. This matchup
features two old friends in coaches Mike McDaniel and Robert Saleh, both former assistants for
the 49ers under Kyle Shanahan. I think we will see RB Raheem Mostert more involved for
Miami and lots of check downs to WRs Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. I don’t necessarily like
overall what I have seen from Jets QB Zach Wilson to this point, but his game-winning drive
against a stout Pittsburgh defense last week deserves some attention. Although Miami is favored,
I really think the Dolphins will struggle to push the ball down the field with Bridgewater in a
divisional matchup against a defensive-minded head coach in Robert Saleh. I think this game
could go either way, but my gut is telling me the Jets will be victorious in this one, at home.
Atlanta (+10) v Tampa Bay (-10)
Winner: Tampa Bay (-525)
The underrated and underdog Falcons will look to take an early season division lead with a win
between two 2-2 teams at the momet. The winner of this game will sit atop the NFC South with
at least a game lead over the other and either New Orleans and Carolina still. I sat and thought
about the winner in this one a little longer than I should have. First, I think Atlanta covers 10.
The line has been at 8 all week but with RB Cordarelle Patterson on IR and TE Kyle Pitts
trending in the wrong direction (not that Arthur Smith lets him play anyways) its jumped to 10.
QB Marcus Mariota has not done enough to impress me and will unlikely be able to overcome
Tampa Bay’s wall of defenders, but the Falcons have played some meaningful football through 4
weeks. They have won two straight after starting 0-2, both losses by a combined 5 points.
Unfortunately for Atlanta, QB Tom Brady is on the other side of the ball and has too many
offensive weapons at his disposal. I have never bet against Tom brady, and don’t plan on doing it
this week. The only reason Atlanta could win this game, is Tom Brady’s clouded headspace as he
hires divorce lawyers.
Seattle (+5.5) v New Orleans (-5.5)
Winner: New Orleans (-240)
There are some games every week where a team just cannot fall below a certain record threshold.
This is that game. New Orleans is just not going to 1-4. RB Alvin Kamara should be back this
week. Checkdown master QB Andy Dalton also looks expected to start, a huge boost for Kamara
against a porous Seattle defense. Even though I have been impressed with Seattle this year, they
just are not winning this game. I will take New Orleans.
Tennessee (-2.5) v Washington (+2.5)
Winner: Tennessee (-130)
I was surprised to find out that there was a “1” in the win column for the Commanders. RB
Derrick Henry is coming off his first 100-yard rushing game of the year last week, and can
certainly continue that against the 21st ranked Commanders rush-defense. I don’t see QB Carson
Wentz suddenly turning into a unicorn this game but I am weary of this matchup. The Titans
being only 2.5 point favorites and just -130 on the moneyline smells fishy. Is there something we
don’t know about the Commanders that will make them win this week? I think Tennessee would
have to beat themselves up, bad might I add, in order to lose to this team. I still will take the
Titans but it would not surprise me if Washington somehow found a way to win this game.
Chicago (+7.5) v Minnesota (-7.5)
Winner: Minnesota (-380)
Minnesota just should not lose this game. They are a highly questionable team at points however,
so like the Tennessee v Washington game, Minnesota can probably figure out a way to blow thisgame. The Bears offense is just abysmal and their defense really is not that much better. The only
threat to Minnesota is RB Khalil Herbert of the Bears, a guy I have loved since he came into the
league, but is underused with David Montgomery (ankle) ahead of him on the depth chart. We’re
moving on, give me the Vikings.
LA Chargers (-2.5) v Cleveland (+2.5)
Winner: Cleveland (+110)
This is an interesting matchup. I remember years ago when the winless Browns knocked off this
team with a game-winning field goal to get their first win of the year against the Chargers. There
is just something about the Chargers. With so much offensive prowess, they just seem to not be
able to amount to anything and find ways to lose games they really shouldn’t have. There are big
name players in this game. It should be a battle between who the better rushing team will be. RB
Nick Chubb is arguably the best RB in the league at the moment, but Austin Ekeler will try to
have something to say about that after his 3-TD performance in last weeks’ win over Houston.
The Chargers have the better QB obviously but my gut is just telling me Cleveland wins this
game, at home against a team coming from the west to the east coast.
San Francisco (-6.5) v Carolina (+6.5)
Winner: San Francisco (-275)
I would not touch this game. There is no reason to believe QB Baker Mayfield will turn into a
star this week, but I think it is possible this is a trap game. Carolina is a terrible team, but I truly
believe the 49ers are not as good as people make them out to be, and are by no means a “lock”
this week. Jimmy G not under primetime lights seems to perform far worse. With an O/U of just
39.5, San Francisco should win, but with so many people just counting out Carolina, it almost
makes you want to bet them. RB Christian McCaffery should have his way, even against a stout
49ers defense. I know I am all over the place on this game, but I will take the 49ers since they
are coming off a quality win over the Rams last week
Dallas Cowboys (+5) v LA Rams (-5)
Winner: LA Rams (-220)
QB Cooper Rush will lose his first game in his career. The Cowboys are not going to 4-1 and the
Rams are not going to 2-3, at home. Outside of Rams WR Cooper Kupp, the Rams have looked
terrible this year. They are 2-2 for the first time under Mcvay, but I think they right the ship this
week. I think the Cowboys can cover 5 however, for the mere fact this game is on FOX and will
be nationally televised, and these games always seem to be close. Give me the Rams.
Philadelphia (-5.5) v Arizona (+5.5)
Winner: Philadelphia (-240)
Behind the Colts, Broncos, Bears and Panthers, this team is terrible to watch, especially in the
first half of football games. QB Kyler Murray is terrible. Philadelphia goes to 5-0.
Cincinnati (+3.5) v Baltimore (-3.5)
Winner: Baltimore (-180)
This should be a fun SNF matchup between two division rivals. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson
should do Lamar Jackson-esque things. I just think Baltimore avenges their loss to the Bills from
last week and learns from any mistakes if they are put in a similar situation. It is supposed to be a
calm and cool night in Baltimore, so no weather will play a factor in this game. I do however
think Bengals WRs Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins will be able to toy with the Baltimore
defense, which will be the biggest threat to Baltimore. I like Baltimore, at home, in this one
though.
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